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I appeared on Silvio Canto Jr's talk show from Dallas.  It's here.

NOVEMBER 1,  2021

Urgent Agenda will be devoting almost all of its coverage in the next day to the important elections taking place around the country, especially the governor contests in Virginia and New Jersey, the mayoralty election in New York, and various propositions on ballots across the country that may have some national meaning.

As it stands now, the psychology that governs politics holds that what happens in these elections will have a profound effect on the results of next year's midterms and on the presidential election of 2024.  I agree.  Both parties are in disarray, with the Democrats reduced to a train wreck and the Republicans heavily guided by whether Donald Trump will run for president again.  Neither party boasts strong and broad leadership.  The Democrats have a weak presidential bench, and the Republicans have a better one, but, again, waiting on Trump.

The key indicator race is in Virginia.  Here is a state, once the seat of the Confederacy, that has drifted from solidly conservative to almost liberal.  Biden won Virginia by ten points.  Now there is political tumult in Mr. Jefferson's home state.  Out of nowhere comes a non-politician named Glenn Youngkin, a moderate conservative who has made educational decay the theme of his campaign...and he is running neck and neck with former Governor Terry McAuliffe, who is well-known throughout the state.  If Youngkin can pull off an upset victory, it will be a political earthquake, a message to the Democrats that no state is safe, and that the ultra-liberal policies of Joe Biden are electoral losers.  If Youngkin wins, look for open civil warfare among the Democrats.  In Virginia, a star will be born, but the knives will be out.

When examining the Virginia results, be sure to observe how well Democrat McAuliffe does among traditionally Democratic interest groups – the blacks, the Hispanics, suburban women, Asian-Americans.  There are signs that loyalty to the Democratic Party among the members of these groups is cracking.  Voters are starting to think for themselves.  We'll see if such rebellious behavior actually shows up, or if Virginians return to their longtime roots.

Also, if the election is close, but leaning Youngkin, look for attempts by the Democrats to challenge the outcome.  They're very good at this, suddenly discovering that there are 150,000 missing absentee ballots. Where could they be?

The other races are less significant than the one in Virginia.  While some Republicans claim that the governor race in Democratic New Jersey is tightening, I'd have to see more to accept that analysis.  Democratic Governor Phil Murphy will probably get another term, but Republican challenger Jack Ciattarell is moving up in the polls...with zero days to go until the election.

The election for mayor of New York City will probably be a coronation.  Eric Adams, a former police officer and today president of the borough of Brooklyn, is the Democratic candidate in a city with a seven to one Democratic registration advantage.  The key point here is that Adams is a moderate Democrat, no member of the lunatic fringe.  He says he's the future of the Democratic Party, and he may well be.

We await real numbers.

November 1, 2021        Permalink

OCTOBER 31,  2021

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – OVERNIGHT:

SOUND FAMILIAR? – FROM WESTERN JOURNAL:   The Democratic Party of Virginia has filed a lawsuit contending that hundreds of thousands of mail-in ballots could be caught up in the glacially-paced USPS mail delivery system, threatening to disenfranchise masses of voters and impact the commonwealth’s tight gubernatorial race.  Last week, the party filed a lawsuit claiming that as many as 300,000 Virginians intend to cast their ballots in Tuesday’s critical election by mail, but local USPS branches have failed to deliver ballots in time for voters to fill them out and return them by the deadline.  “Thousands of absentee ballots currently sit at postal facilities throughout the Commonwealth, unprocessed for weeks on end,” the suit alleges, according to The Washington Times.  The USPS, for its part, insists that no such delays have occurred, and CNN reported Friday that it has agreed to provide daily election mail reports to all concerned parties.  “The Postal Service has a robust and tested process for the proper handling and timely delivery of Election Mail. Our Election Mail processes and procedures are fully operational in Virginia. We are not aware of any processing delays of any ballots within our facilities nor any ballot delivery delays, and we have fully communicated this information to election officials,” the agency’s public relations representative Martha Johnson told the Times in an email.  If the Republicans take the governorship in a close contest, I wouldn't be shocked to see the Democrats hang the election up in court filings.  The press, which trashed President Trump for daring to suggest that the 2020 election was rigged, will suddenly discover new flaws in the voting system. 

October 31, 2021      Permalink 

SAD DECLINE OF A PRESIDENT – OVERNIGHT:  New numbers, even when read over the air by the dreadfully liberal Chuck Todd, give us a grim picture of where President Biden stands, or stumbles, with the American people.  From Breitbart: 

NBC anchor Chuck Todd debuted a new poll on Sunday’s broadcast of “Meet the Press” which showed 71 percent of Americans believe America is on the wrong track.

Todd said, “We have a brand new NBC news poll out this morning still with some scary news for the Democrats. The overarching message, Americans have lost their confidence in President Joe Biden and their optimism for the country. At least they have right now. Just 22% of adults say we are headed in the right direction. A shocking 71% say we’re on the wrong track and that includes a near majority of Democrats who are saying that.”

He continued, “President Biden’s approval rating stands at a dismal 42% versus 54% who disapprove.

Believe it or not, just two months ago Mr. Biden was in positive territory, 49 approving. So what’s pulling down the president’s numbers? Look at this set of numbers, just 37% say he has the ability to handle a crisis versus a majority who say he does not. Thirty-seven percent also say he’s competent and effective as president. 50% disagree with that description. What’s more, Republicans, believe it or not, have double-digit leads in dealing with border security, inflation, crime, national security, the economy, and, shockingly, on getting things done. Democrats hold generally smaller double-digit leads on dealing with climate change, the coronavirus, education, and abortion. That’s really it right now.”

COMMENT:  The president's physical condition was apparently not discussed, but it is one of the most important factors in his presidency.  He just doesn't come off as a man whose health is strong enough to carry a presidency.

Obviously, things can change for the better, but they can also change for the worse.  There is no sense of optimism that Biden can get past his current troubles and go on to lead the country  He seems like a downhill kind of guy. 

And if he can no longer carry on?  The very name "President Kamala Harris" sends waves of dread through large numbers of the American people. 

Who wants to be a Democrat these days?

October 31, 2021       Permalink